ELECTION COMMISSION OF INDIA
Nirvachan
Sadan, Ashoka Road, NEW DELHI-110001
No. ECI/MCS /98/01 20 January, 1998
O R D E R
Subject - Guidelines for Publication and
Dissemination of Results of Opinion Polls/Exit Polls.
The Election Commission has observed that during
the run up to any general elections to the House of
the People or State Legislative Assemblies, Opinion
Polls are often conducted by different organisations.
The results of such opinion polls are published in
newspapers, magazines and other periodicals, and
sometimes telecast/broadcast on the electronic media.
The dissemination of such results of Opinion Polls
receives wide publicity and coverage in the print and
electronic media and such dissemination, particularly
on the eve of polls, has the potential to influence
the electors when they are in the mental process of
making up of their minds to vote or not to vote for a
certain political party or a candidate. The
methodology followed by different organisations
conducting such opinion polls varies from
organisation to organisation, or the agencies,
conducting such polls. Similarly, the sample size of
the electorate covered by such polls and geographic
spread of the survey also differs substantially in
each case.
2. Apart from the Opinion Polls, Exit Polls are also
conducted by some organisations on the days of polls.
Considering the magnitude of the electorate in the
country, particularly at the time of countrywide
general elections to the House of the People, and the
complexity of operations involved in the conduct of
such general elections, the poll is taken in a phased
manner, spread over a period of two to three weeks.
Publication of result of any Exit Poll, in the
intervening period when the poll in any of the States
or Union Territories or constituencies is yet to be
taken, is likely to affect the unbiased exercise of
franchise by the elector, one way or the other.
3. Representations have been made to the Commission
by various political parties and others concerned
that the conduct of such Opinion Polls and Exit
Polls, and publication of their results, when the
election process is on, should be stopped, so that no
political party or candidate suffers adversely or
gain an undue advantage, because of the above.
4. The Commission has discussed the matter with all
recognised National and State political parties at
the meetings held in New Delhi on 22nd and
23rd December 1997. Almost all the
political parties, with the exception of one or two,
emphatically stated that Opinion Polls, the way the
same are conducted, are unscientific. According to
them, there is considerable bias in the size and the
nature of the sample drawn to make such an opinion
poll and they tend to influence the voters in an
unbecoming manner. They further stated that many of
the polls are motivated and are not impartial,
because of the known leanings or prejudices of some
of the organisations conducting such polls, towards
or against certain political parties and/or their
leaders. While some parties were in favour of opinion
polls not being allowed, right from the date of
announcement of elections by the Commission, a large
number of parties were in favour of such restrictions
being applied from the date of notification for the
elections.
5. Almost all the parties were also opposed to
allowing the exercise of Exit Polls and emphatically
stated that the results of such Exit Polls, even if
permitted, should, in no way, come out before the
polling in all the constituencies in all States and
Union Territories was over in all respects.
6. The Commission has carefully examined the matter.
It has also examined the position as obtaining in
some of the other advanced democracies in various
parts of the world. It has been observed that in many
of these democracies, like, Canada, France, Italy,
Poland, Turkey, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, etc.,
restrictions, in one way or the other, are placed on
the conduct of Opinion Polls and Exit Polls.
7. The Canadian Elections Act, (vide Section 322.1)
peremptorily prohibits the publication of any results
of any Opinion Poll two days before the voting
begins. The said Section provides as under:
"No
person shall broadcast, publish or disseminate
the results of an opinion survey respecting how
electors will vote at an election or respecting
an election issue that would permit the
identification of a political party or candidate
from midnight the Friday before polling day
(which is always a Monday) until the close of all
polling stations".
8. The
Italian Decree Law of 18.11.1995, n. 488, titled
"Urgent Provisions for equal access to the Media
during electoral and referendary campaign"
provides, vide Art. 8, as follows:-
"Starting
from the 20th day before
the elections till the closing date of voting, it
is forbidden to publish or circulate the results
of exit polls, even if such surveys were carried
out before the above mentioned period."
9. In
this context, the provisions of Section 126 of our
Representation of the People Act, 1951, as amended by
the Representation of the People (Amendment) Act,
1996, w.e.f. 1.8.1996, also deserve to be taken
special note of. That Section provides as under:-
"126.
Prohibition of public meetings during the period
of forty-eight hours ending with hour fixed for
conclusion of poll. -
(1) No person shall-
(a) convene, hold, attend, join or address any
public meeting or procession in connection with
an election; or
(b) display to the public any election matter by
means of cinematography, television or other
similar apparatus; or
(c) propagate any election matter to the public
by holding, or by arranging the holding of, any
musical concert or any theatrical performance or
any other entertainment or amusement with a view
to attracting the members of the public thereto,
in any polling area during the period of
forty-eight hours ending with the hour fixed for
the conclusion of the poll for any election in
that polling area.
2 Any person who contravenes the provisions of
sub-section (1) shall be punishable with
imprisonment for a term which may extend to two
years or with fine, or with both,
3. In this section, the expression "election
matter" means any matter intended or
calculated to influence or affect the result of
an election."
10.
The law, as contained in the above quoted section
126, is clear manifestation of recognition of ground
reality by Parliament, in its collective wisdom and
as a measure of electoral reform carried out by it as
recently as August, 1996 after the last general
election to the House of the People in 1996, that the
voter needs a period of at least 48 hours before the
completion of the poll, during which he should not be
disturbed in the process of weighing the merits and
demerits of political parties and contesting
candidates in the electoral fray and he can absorb,
what he has heard or witnessed during the campaign
period, in a tranquil and balanced frame of mind.
11. Viewed in the light of the above statutory
restrictions, allowing results of Opinion Polls and
Exit Polls to be published, on the eve of polls or
during the polling process, would be a deleterious
intrusion into the mind of the voter, which is
prohibited by law during the aforesaid period of 48
hours. The Commission is statutorily bound to take
all such steps as will give effect to the
Parliamentary intent and implement the law, in letter
and spirit, as laid down by Parliament.
12. The Commission is conscious of the fact that, in
any democratic society, the electors, who choose
their representatives to give them a government, do
have a right to have information, and be informed and
educated, about the policies, programmes, manifestos,
etc., of political parties and candidates, who are
vying for their votes, and who, if voted to power,
will form the government. The Commission is equally
conscious of the ‘freedom of press’ in any
democratic country, and the rights of the print and
electronic media to gather information, on any issue
or event of public importance, and disseminate it to
the general public for their information and decision
making. But the Commission also has to balance
between such rights of the print and electronic media
and the rights of the electorate in the matter of
exercise of their franchise in a free and fair
manner, uninfluenced by any extraneous factors. In
striking such balance, it would not be unreasonable
and unfair to place certain reasonable restrictions
on the dissemination of information, particularly
unverified information, by the print and electronic
media, on the eve of polls.
13. In this context, the guidelines framed by the
Press Council of India, established under an Act of
Parliament with the object of preserving the freedom
of Press and of maintaining and improving its
standards, in regard to the dissemination of results
of Opinion Polls and Exit Polls, also deserve special
attention. The attention of the Commission has been
invited to these guidelines by none other than
Hon’ble Mr. Justice P.B.Sawant, Chairman of
Press Council of India and President of World
Association of Press Councils. These guidelines of
Press Council of India provide, inter alia, as
follows:
"Guidelines
on ‘Pre-poll’ and
‘Exit-Polls’ Survey
The Press Council of India having considered the
question of desirability or otherwise of
publication of findings of pre-poll surveys and
the purpose served by them, is of the view that
the newspapers should not allow their forum to be
used for distortions and manipulations of the
elections and should not allow themselves to be
exploited by the interested parties.
The Press Council, therefore, advises that in
view of the crucial position occupied by the
electoral process in a representative democracy
like ours, the newspapers should be on guard
against their precious forum being used for
distortions and manipulations of the elections.
This has become necessary to emphasise today
since the print media is sought to be
increasingly exploited by the interested
individuals and groups to misguide and mislead
the unwary voters by subtle and not so subtle
propaganda on casteist, religious and ethnic
basis as well as by the use of sophisticated
means like the alleged pre-poll surveys. While
the communal and seditious propaganda is not
difficult to detect in many cases, the interested
use of the pre-poll survey, sometimes
deliberately planted, is not so easy to uncover.
The Press Council, therefore, suggests that
whenever the newspapers publish pre-poll surveys,
they should take care to preface them
conspicuously by indicating the institutions
which have carried such surveys, the individuals
and organisations which have commissioned the
surveys, the size and nature of sample selected,
the method of selection of the sample for the
findings and the possible margin of error in the
findings.
Further in the event of staggered poll dates; the
media is seen to carry exit-poll surveys of the
polls already held. This is likely to influence
the voters where the polling is yet to commence.
With a view to ensure that the electoral process
is kept pure and the voters’ minds are not
influenced by any external factors, it is
necessary that the media does not publish the
exit-poll surveys till the last poll is held.
The Press Council, therefore, requests the Press
to abide by the following guideline in respect of
the exit-polls:
Guideline:
No newspaper shall publish exit-poll surveys,
however, genuine they may be, till the last of
the polls is over."
14.
Having regard to all the above mentioned facts and
circumstances, and the constitutional and legal
provisions relevant to the issue under consideration,
the Election Commission has, in pursuance of its
sacred and solemn duty of conducting free and fair
elections to Parliament and State Legislatures,
entrusted to it by Article 324 of the Constitution,
decided to lay down the following Guidelines
for observance by print and electronic media,
including government controlled electronic media in
connection with the conduct of Opinion Polls and Exit
Polls by them, during the forthcoming general
elections to the House of the People and the
Legislative Assemblies of Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh,
Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura:
Guidelines
of the Election Commission of India
(i) The organisations or agencies conducting
Opinion Polls shall be free to conduct such
polls, and publish results thereof, in or by any
print or electronic media, at any time, except
the period mentioned in clause (ii), during the
run up to the polls for the aforesaid general
elections to the House of the People and State
Legislative Assemblies mentioned above.
(ii) No result of any opinion poll conducted at
any time shall, be published, publicised or
disseminated, in any manner whatsoever, in or by
any print or electronic media, after 1700 hours
on the 14th February, 1998 (16th
February, 1998 being the first day of poll for
the aforesaid general elections) and till half an
hour after the closing of poll in all States and
Union Territories, expect three Parliamentary
Constituencies in the State of Jammu and Kashmir
i.e., 1730 hours on the 28th February, 1998.
(iii) The above organisations and agencies shall
also be free to conduct exit polls. But the
result of any such exit poll conducted at any
time shall also not be published, publicised or
disseminated, in any manner whatsoever, in or by
any print or electronic media, at any time from
0700 hours on the 16th February, 1998
(being the first day of poll for the aforesaid
general elections) and till half an hour after
the closing of poll in all States and Union
Territories, except three Parliamentary
Constituencies i.e., 1730 hours on the 28th
February, 1998.
(iv) Any organisations or agencies conducting any
Opinion Poll or Exit Poll, while publishing,
publicising or disseminating the result of any
such poll, must indicate the sample size of the
electorate covered by such polls and geographic
spread of survey so conducted. They must
invariably give the details of methodology
followed, likely percentage of errors, the
professional background and experience of the
organisation or organisations and the key
professionals involved in the conduct and
analysis of the poll.
Explanation: In this Order, -
(a) ‘Electronic media’ includes Radio
and Television - both Government owned and
Private and covers Satellite, Terrestrial and
Cable Channels.
(b) 'Dissemination’ includes publication in
any newspaper, magazine or periodical, or display
on electronic media, or circulation by means of
any pamphlet, poster, placard, handbill or any
other document.
15.
The above guidelines shall also apply mutatis mutandis
at all future elections to Parliament and State
Legislatures.
By Order,
(Subas Pani)
Deputy Election Commissioner
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